What a long and lively season it has been. Most excitingly, this year’s Oscar ceremony is less predictable, with many categories open for slaughter. We could very well see a Best Picture winner with the lowest win tally in eons, or even a potential steamroller in The Revenant. Now onto the final prediction dive, where I also share some Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda’s: what could win, what I would pick, and what should have been nominated. Oscar Prediction pages can also be found here.

Of course, if you missed the filmmixtape Best of the Year or my votes for the craft categories, be sure to check those out too! On to the predictions…

BEST PICTURE – It’s down to a battle of big canvas craft and small scale dramatic fireworks between The Revenant and Spotlight. My money is on Spotlight, helped by broad support on the preferential ballot (probably getting the lion’s share of #2 and #3 votes) versus The Revenant‘s vocal dissenters.

• COULDA – The Big Short
  
• WOULDA – Room
  
• SHOULDA – Carol

BEST DIRECTOR – Much as the internet has been hoping for a George Miller win all season, Mad Max: Fury Road just never just the bid from a major awards body to push him ahead. Alejandro G. Iñárritu is about to be our first back-to-back winner in the modern era.

• COULDA – George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
  
• WOULDA – George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
  
• SHOULDA – Todd Haynes – Carol

BEST ACTOR – Keep complaining internet, nothing stands in DiCaprio’s way. This isn’t the best year for the category.

• COULDA – not a chance, anyone else
  
• WOULDA – Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
  
• SHOULDA – Paul Dano – Love and Mercy

BEST ACTRESS – An incredible year for the category, so good that it’s kind of a shame that eventual winner Brie Larson dominated all of the majors. Spread the love, awards voters.

• COULDA – Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn
  
• WOULDA – Brie Larson – Room
  
• SHOULDA – Emily Blunt – Sicario
  

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – Stallone wins in the first standing O of the night.

• COULDA – Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
  
• WOULDA – Sylvester Stallone – Creed
  
• SHOULDA – Oscar Isaac – Ex Machina
  

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – It feels risky to predict Kate Winslet here, until you consider the momentum that’s been built by wins at BAFTA and the Globes. Do they like Vikander enough to vote for her in a movie they don’t?

• COULDA – Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
  
• WOULDA – Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
  
• SHOULDA – Sarah Paulson – Carol
  

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – Spotlight

• COULDA – Bridge of Spies
• WOULDA – Spotlight
• SHOULDA – I’ll See You in My Dreams

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – The Big Short

• COULDA – Room
• WOULDA – Room
• SHOULDA – Steve Jobs

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE – Amy has been challenged by The Look of Silence all season, and lately by Netflix’s spend for What Happened, Miss Simone?. But you can’t hold back the widest seen film from winning.

• COULDA – The Look of Silence
• WOULDA – The Look of Silence
• SHOULDA – Heart of a Dog

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM – Son of Saul has been the most prominent all season, but I wonder if the rumors of needing the executive committee for the nomination spells the chances for a Mustang upset.

• COULDA – Mustang
• WOULDA – Mustang
• SHOULDA – The Second Mother

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE – Nothing can stop a new Pixar classic. Inside Out.

• COULDA – Anomalisa
• WOULDA – Shaun the Sheep
• SHOULDA – …

BEST EDITING – Mad Max: Fury Road. Even though it would be a shocker, if Spotlight takes this, there’s your Best Picture winner.

• COULDA – The Big Short
• WOULDA – Mad Max: Fury Road
• SHOULDA – Sicario

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY – Remember when Lubezki was frustratingly unheralded for more interesting work? This will be his third straight win, this time for The Revenant.

• COULDA – Mad Max: Fury Road
• WOULDA – Mad Max: Fury Road
• SHOULDA – It Follows

BEST COSTUME DESIGN – Good will for Mad Max: Fury Road.

• COULDA – Carol
• WOULDA – Carol
• SHOULDA – Crimson Peak

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN – MMFR awaits Oscar Valhalla!

• COULDA – Bridge of Spies
• WOULDA – Mad Max: Fury Road
• SHOULDA – Room

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING – The Revenant wins the wound battle.

• COULDA – Mad Max: Fury Road
• WOULDA – Mad Max: Fury Road
• SHOULDA – Crimson Peak

BEST ORIGINAL SONG – Gaga: “Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground

• COULDA – Fifty Shades of Grey
• WOULDA – The Hunting Ground
• SHOULDA – I’ll See You in my Dreams

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – The Hateful Eight

• COULDA – Carol
• WOULDA – Carol
• SHOULDA – It Follows

BEST SOUND MIXING – The Revenant

• COULDA – The Martian
• WOULDA – Bridge of Spies for that opening sequence
• SHOULDA – Son of Saul

BEST SOUND EDITING – The Revenant

• COULDA – Mad Max: Fury Road
• WOULDA – Sicario
• SHOULDA – Inside Out

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS – Star Wars: The Force Awakens

• COULDA – The Revenant
• WOULDA – Mad Max: Fury Road
• SHOULDA – Avengers: Age of Ultron

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT – Stutterer

BEST ANIMATED SHORT – World of Tomorrow (pictured above, streaming now on Netflix)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT – Claude Lanzman: Spectres of Shoah

Good luck on those Oscar pools!