Happy Oscar Night everyone! Tonight, we’ll finally see if La La Land can match previous record holders after its record tie for nominations. God forbid the Twitter dissenters have even more grousing to do, but hold tight because its almost over. Before the big ceremony, let’s take a quick look at the night’s certainties, possibilities, and missed opportunities:

BEST PICTURE
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Moonlight
Should Have Been Nominated: 20th Century Women
Again, La La Land is nowhere near as unpopular with the Academy (and regular viewers) than it is in the Twittersphere. With maybe a small chance for Moonlight to upset, this is the easiest call of the night.

BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Could Win: Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
Should Have Been Nominated: Pablo Larraín – Jackie
Ditto – though I do wonder if a vote split could happen like in years past. But there would be some signs of a stronger play for Moonlight if that were the case, I think.

Continue reading “Final Oscar Predictions!” →

Greetings all! I hope everyone is having a lovely and movie-filled holiday weekend!

With some movement on the Oscar front, with the Independent Spirit nominations and finally a Silence trailer (not to mention the box office performance of the likes of Moonlight and Arrival), we have some movement on the prediction charts before the very heavy month of December. Check out our updated Oscar Predictions!

Happy Labor Day weekend, I’ve been busy!

Now that festival season is in full swing and launching us into the Oscar season, I’ve updated the Oscar predictions pages! Some question marks to be answered in the coming months:

• Will Viola Davis be campaigned in lead or supporting for Fences? The role has been positioned in both on stage.
• Can Isabelle Huppert be this year’s recognized legend or will multiple projects divide her love? If Elle gets more attention, is it too prickly and slippery for the pearl clutchers?
• Is anything from the spring and summer going to be able to get a resurgence? For below the line categories, The Jungle Book and Love and Friendship could be major threats.
• Debating The Birth of a Nation‘s Oscar chances in regards to Nate Parker’s reemerging rape charges and homophobia is indeed gross, but regardless of controversy: could voters just get plain tired of talking/hearing about the movie for nine months?
• If Silence does open this year (The Wolf of Wall Street had the same release dates woes this time during its year), will there be a long-gestating payoff for the Martin Scorsese passion project? That narrative only took Gangs of New York so far when it didn’t deliver.