Happy Oscar Night everyone! Tonight, we’ll finally see if La La Land can match previous record holders after its record tie for nominations. God forbid the Twitter dissenters have even more grousing to do, but hold tight because its almost over. Before the big ceremony, let’s take a quick look at the night’s certainties, possibilities, and missed opportunities:

BEST PICTURE
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Moonlight
Should Have Been Nominated: 20th Century Women
Again, La La Land is nowhere near as unpopular with the Academy (and regular viewers) than it is in the Twittersphere. With maybe a small chance for Moonlight to upset, this is the easiest call of the night.

BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Could Win: Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
Should Have Been Nominated: Pablo Larraín – Jackie
Ditto – though I do wonder if a vote split could happen like in years past. But there would be some signs of a stronger play for Moonlight if that were the case, I think.

BEST ACTOR
Will Win: Denzel Washington – Fences
Could Win: Casey Affleck – Manchester By The Sea
Should Have Been Nominated: Ralph Fiennes – A Bigger Splash
The only acting category with a potential shakeup from the many precursors we’ve seen this year, and a shaky one as I suspect this race will be quite close. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ryan Gosling shock here even if La La Land doesn’t sweep.

BEST ACTRESS
Will Win: Emma Stone – La La Land
Could Win: Isabelle Huppert – Elle
Should Have Been Nominated: Annette Bening – 20th Century Women
The tightest race leading up to the nominations became one of the most underwhelming. Yes, Huppert is the only threat to Emma Stone’s win, but she’s a very distant second. Had Annette and Amy Amy rightfully been in, this would’ve been far more thrilling.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Could Win: Dev Patel – Lion
Should Have Been Nominated: Trevante Rhodes – Moonlight
Dev Patel’s BAFTA win is certainly one of the more surprising development’s this season to yours truly, and Lion‘s surging could play here. But Ali is one of the most beloved aspects of the very beloved Moonlight, so I think his place is safe.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Viola Davis – Fences
Could Win: Not a chance…
Should Have Been Nominated: Paulina Garcia – Little Men
ICYMI I got to take part in the Supporting Actress Smackdown for this year over at The Film Experience, so please do check it out! It’s Viola’s year.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Manchester By The Sea
Could Win: La La Land
Should Have Been Nominated: Little Men
Another tight race here, but I suspect one that will be easy to pry from La La Land to award another favorite that may not get rewarded elsewhere.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Moonlight
Could Win: Arrival
Should Have Been Nominated: Love and Friendship
Outside threats from Arrival and Lion are possibly preventing Moonlight’s surest thing.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will Win: OJ: Made In America
Could Win: 13th
Should Have Been Nominated: Weiner
OJ has such passionate support, but I wouldn’t rule out the very smartly campaigned 13th and the surging I Am Not Your Negro.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will Win: The Salesman
Could Win: A Man Called Ove
Should Have Been Nominated: Elle (but The Handmaiden if it were eligible)
It helps when awarding the best is also taking a political stance. Ove has lurked as a crowdpleasing and comparatively high grossing sleeper her, even though it’s the worst by a country mile.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Will Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Could Win: Zootopia
Should Have Been Nominated: April and the Extraordinary World
I’ve long wondered if voters had somewhat forgot about Zootopia, and Kubo has led an impactful campaign so I’ll take the risk here.

BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Arrival
Should Have Been Nominated: 20th Century Women

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Lion
Should Have Been Nominated: American Honey

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Jackie
Should Have Been Nominated: The Handmaiden

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Arrival
Should Have Been Nominated: Silence

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR
Will Win: Suicide Squad
Could Win: Star Trek Beyond
Should Have Been Nominated: Silence

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will Win: La La Land – “City of Stars”
Could Win: Moana – “How Far I’ll Go”
Should Have Been Nominated: Sing Street – “Drive It Like You Stole It”
Sorry for reopening the wound of Sing Street‘s lack of a nomination here.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Moonlight
Should Have Been Nominated: Swiss Army Man

BEST SOUND MIXING
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Arrival
Should Have Been Nominated: Silence

BEST SOUND EDITING
Will Win: Arrival
Could Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Should Have Been Nominated: Don’t Breathe

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: The Jungle Book
Could Win: Doctor Strange
Should Have Been Nominated: Arrival

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Moonlight
Could Win: Lion
Should Have Been Nominated: Moonlight

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Will Win: Time Code
Could Win: Sing

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will Win: 4.1 Miles
Could Win: The White Helmets

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Will Win: Pearl
Could Win: Piper